Public opinion is mixed, reflecting national pride in China's technological advancements alongside concerns about the implications for global military dynamics and the potential for an arms race. While many commenters express admiration for China's achievements, skepticism regarding military intentions and criticisms of U.S. response strategies persist.

China

United States

International Community

The following submission statement was provided by /u/thisisinsider:

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***From Business Insider's Kwan Wei Kevin Tan***:  
  
China could achieve parity with the US and Russia in terms of the number of [intercontinental ballistic missiles](https://www.businessinsider.com/tk-china-icbm-test-header-2024-9) it has by 2030, per an estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The European think tank said in a report on Monday that China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. It added that the country has at least 600 nuclear warheads and has been adding about 100 warheads to its arsenal every year since 2023.

Last year, SIPRI said China [increased its number of nuclear warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-now-fastest-growing-nuclear-arsenal-in-the-world-report-2024-6) from 410 in 2023 to 500 at the start of 2024.

SIPRI's estimate is similar to that of the Pentagon's, which said in its China Military Power Report last year that China has [over 600 operational nuclear warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-600-nukes-pentagon-advanced-systems-hgv-fob-2024-12). The Defense Department said China is on track to grow its arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030.

SIPRI said in its report on Monday that China could have as many ICBMs as the US or Russia by 2030, but will [lag behind in the number of warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-more-icbm-launchers-us-has-nuclear-edge-2023-2). It estimates that China will have a maximum number of 1,500 warheads by 2035.

[Read more](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-as-many-icbms-as-us-russia-by-2030-2025-6?utm_source=reddit&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=insider-futurology-sub-post).

---

 Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1ldryop/china_could_have_as_many_intercontinental/myagjql/

FuturologyBot

They are the 2nd largest economy in the world, buildup in the current geopolitical situation is normal tbh.

BhalaManushya

Oh no! With that 20,000th war head they truly will be formidable! Not like only 20 could wipe out half the world’s population or anything…

Newt-Wooden

ok? I don’t care. I am so sick of the media playing their part of the military industrial complex mouthpiece

TheLastSamurai

This is blatant war propaganda. The media is trying to coerce us into believing that we need more nuclear warheads and/or go to war over WMDs. They did this with Iraq. Please reddit, be smart and dont fucking fall for this

Bitter_Water5298

It really wouldn't be surprising if they already do.

hickoryvine

Out of the three major powers, they’re the only ones with a defensive strike policy

Dassman88

Btw China has been doing all their military advancements on a consistent 1.6% of GDP.

laminatedlama

Where's all the tough talk about them? No appetite for conflict with people who can actually fight back?

rostamcountry

This would be a problem if China used bombs. They havent done that in like 50 years, unlike the US

JRange

This is identical to the propaganda about Iran that Netanyahu himself has been pushing since at least 9/11.  This is zero effort war propaganda.

jsawden

***From Business Insider's Kwan Wei Kevin Tan***:  
  
China could achieve parity with the US and Russia in terms of the number of [intercontinental ballistic missiles](https://www.businessinsider.com/tk-china-icbm-test-header-2024-9) it has by 2030, per an estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The European think tank said in a report on Monday that China has the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. It added that the country has at least 600 nuclear warheads and has been adding about 100 warheads to its arsenal every year since 2023.

Last year, SIPRI said China [increased its number of nuclear warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-now-fastest-growing-nuclear-arsenal-in-the-world-report-2024-6) from 410 in 2023 to 500 at the start of 2024.

SIPRI's estimate is similar to that of the Pentagon's, which said in its China Military Power Report last year that China has [over 600 operational nuclear warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-600-nukes-pentagon-advanced-systems-hgv-fob-2024-12). The Defense Department said China is on track to grow its arsenal to 1,000 warheads by 2030.

SIPRI said in its report on Monday that China could have as many ICBMs as the US or Russia by 2030, but will [lag behind in the number of warheads](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-more-icbm-launchers-us-has-nuclear-edge-2023-2). It estimates that China will have a maximum number of 1,500 warheads by 2035.

[Read more](https://www.businessinsider.com/china-as-many-icbms-as-us-russia-by-2030-2025-6?utm_source=reddit&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=insider-futurology-sub-post).

thisisinsider

Isn't it neat that if you are a defense contractor looking to make a missile defense system for the continental US, you can just buy yourself some propaganda in Business Insider to justify why that system is necessary.

Aern

China's undoubtedly the next sole Superpower which is why I think it's silly to be antognising them. Everyone else is on the decline at the minute and China keeps rolling sixes.

Getafix69

Had no idea they didnt have as many.

Also, likely they already have more *functioning* icbms than Russia.

SauceHankRedemption

Isn’t all this stuff made and stored underground? How would they know that they don’t already.

gravitywind1012

[deleted]

Let the China glazing begin. I don't wanna mute this subreddit but I'm getting close. Let's do this anyway.

Why would the US or Russia, warmonger of a country as it may be, build more nukes to try to compete with China? We already have enough to destroy the world. Having more doesn't change anything. This is basically an article that says China reaches the Nuke finish line 3rd. Congratulations. Here's your bronze medal. Thanks for slightly increasing the risk of mutually assured destruction.

Abication

Why shouldn’t they have it? The US has over 3000 bases around china? Would china have bases around the US?

One-Psychology-8394

Oh boy missile gap fear mongering! It really is a new cold war.

IotaDelta

What about mineshafts though? Have we considered the mineshaft gap?

tony_countertenor

Not surprised at all, the message the superpowers sends out loud and clear is, if you don't have nukes then we can invade you without a second thought.

GreyBeardEng

What’s the good of having to live the rest of your life in an underground bunker while the country above you led no longer exists

Wazza17

And then powerful countries starts annihilating Earth in 2050.

Ninjatron-

Once you have \~500, you have fully credible second strike deterrence, and at that point having 1000, 2000 or 5000 is pretty much the same.

cazzipropri

Is that not a waste of money even from their perspective? Peer to peer there won’t be but a few initials then MAD. 2nd and 3rd world you will go broke trying to use them. That’s not even mentioning the coordination it would take with peers to avoid MAD to use them on 2nd and 3rd world.

jyhall83

The title doesn't match the article. 1500 is not as many as 5000...

Ulyks

In a world of pre-emptive strikes we should expect the US to feel existentially threatened in about 4 years

cruel_frames

The only surprising thing about this is that they haven’t already.

ToothessGibbon

One day they will leverage that arsenal to take Taiwan and dare anyone to do anything about it.

douwd20

How many countries has china attacked in the last 50 years?

Totalidiotfuq

ICBMs are useful defensive weapons.  To first strike the enemy you can use ocean trawlers or whatever to deliver. There is an old joke about putting bombs in bales of marijuana that cross the boarder daily.

This is why North Korea's threats ring hollow; they could have caused all kinds of havoc by now if they wanted to.

bebopbrain

So fallout is now a documentary of what will happen in 2077.

recoveringleft

Until they get in a real conflict I look at them like Russian after they invaded Ukraine. They talk a big game but I’m not convinced they’re as powerful or as advanced as they want us to believe

kababbby

Neocons want another war so bad. They're out in force talking about regime change in Iran again. Of course they're saber rattling about China. Israel is just a bonus round for them.

feldoneq2wire

And you cant stop China ahahahahahaah.
Their not a banana country you can messs around like iran,Libia,sirya.

isolax

The missile gap. https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1076/1*duSHTANNy_Jn5UVdYCS8_w.jpeg

leoperd_2_ace

ICBMs may be obsolete. Just look at Ukraine's spider web drone mission.

Vitringar

War with Iran in the 2020s, war with China in the 30s. 

Americans sure do have a lot to look forward to.

CloudMafia9

Historically, a dictatorship doing an arms buildup is nothing to worry about right?

SniffMyDiaperGoo

You have to wonder why they are building this? This goes beyond national defense, and into MAD. Yet they claim to be friendly with both other major nuclear powers?

Gitmfap

They already have enough to destroy the world. Why would they need more? 

snowbirdnerd

And trumps admin wants to denuclearize our arsenal cause 'russia and china won't attack as long as trumpsnin the seat.'

ZoomZoom_Driver

Good. Let's just destroy humanity and get it over with. 

buddhistbulgyo

OK, so its not a new type of steel.  Its just steel insulated by aerogel and ceramic.

xyphon0010

PhyterNL

Marchello_E

Every single "china beats best xxx" is propaganda. Why are these posts not deleted?

green_gold_purple

SpaceX touted some proprietary stainless for starship years ago called 30Xl. But then never actually made any starships out of it.

keeplookinguy

Can't help but associate stainless steel tech with some forgettable billionaire.

BitRunr

I understand that JFK jr is suggesting the USAF consider changing materials to reduce the opportunity for government controlled Chem trails.

So far the suggestions are paper planes, planes made of ice (it’s cold up there so it won’t melt), edible planes and of course his super stealth plane as seen on Wonder Woman.

So much winning…. Winners Winners Winners…

Tso-su-Mi

Ah yes. The reputable news site of Jason Deegan…

Additional_Shift_893

All this while the U.S. slashes scientists from its workforce, disables NASA, looking to vitamins to solve virus problems, haha.  My how the mighty have fallen.

Opening-Dependent512

China is once again steeling the spotlight, hioooooo

IampresentlyKyle

&gt; China’s military aerospace sector appears to have reached a major milestone with its MD-19 hypersonic drone, a platform that reportedly can achieve horizontal landings after reaching hypersonic speeds. A recently surfaced video offers a glimpse of this cutting-edge system, shedding light on its deployment and key design features.

&gt; The MD-19 was shown being air-launched from a Tengden TB-001, a medium-altitude long-endurance [MALE] combat drone developed by Sichuan Tengden. This method of launch highlights China’s increasing ability to combine unmanned platforms with hypersonic technology, offering greater operational flexibility while reducing energy costs and risks compared to traditional takeoffs.

&gt; What makes the MD-19 truly noteworthy, however, is its ability to land horizontally on a conventional runway after completing its mission. This capability – a world first for a hypersonic aircraft configuration, according to Chinese sources – could represent a major step forward in reusability and operational efficiency.

&gt; Most hypersonic test vehicles are single-use platforms, destroyed after completing their flights. The MD-19, on the other hand, appears to transition from hypersonic to subsonic flight and land safely. This not only reduces development costs but also allows for repeated testing, which is crucial for refining hypersonic technologies.

moses_the_blue

I mean X-15 landed in the 70s, albeit on a dried up lake bed. Still a great breakthrough for them. Any guesses on what they will use it for or is this just a hypersonic test bed?

khan9813

It is probably not very stealthy. But if you can overrun missiles, maybe you don't need to be.

Aircraft are the most restrictive and limited military vehicle because piloting them is a difficult skill. The more drones, the more effective an air force.

ConstantStatistician

It seems to be a scaled down prototype of [MD-22](https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/yn93ei/md22_nearspace_hypersonic_platform_shown_in/), first seen at Zhuhai 2022.

MD-22 is suppose to operate at near-space region between 20-100km altitude at up to mach 7 with 8000km range.

Temstar

"MD-19" sounds like a Mcdonnell Douglas plane lol

cashewnut4life

Why do the Chinese always write their designations like MD-19 etc in English characters?

Short: in sevice equipment only, so no gen6s

NFossil

DungeonDefense

So no 6th-gen prototypes or the mysterious H-20. 

I do hope we can at least see the naval J-35 though. Even better if they announce its in service (either during the ceremony or right before it), and thus to be expected as it fulfils the requirement "All equipment to be displayed at the military parade will be domestically produced battle equipment already in service."

It just feels so odd for a derivative of the true project (J-35A of the J-35) being the first officially inducted into service and given a designation.

AvalancheZ250

&gt; China will hold a military parade in Tian'anmen Square in downtown Beijing on September 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, according to a press conference held by China's State Council Information Office on Tuesday. 

&gt; All equipment to be displayed at the military parade will be domestically produced battle equipment already in service. In addition to displaying the new generation of traditional weapons and equipment, some new combat forces such as unmanned intelligence, underwater warfare, network and electronic attack and defense, and hypersonic warfare equipment will be featured, reflecting the Chinese military's strong ability to evolve according to science and technological advancements and to win future wars, Xinhua reported.

&gt; Wu, the senior officer of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, said at the press conference on Tuesday that the weapons and equipment on display will form a comprehensive system. All of them are selected and integrated from the operational units of various military services and branches. They encompass not only strategic strike forces but also advanced operational and tactical equipment, as well as new-quality forces designed for future warfare paradigms.

&gt; Another characteristic is that these weapons and equipment cover all types of capabilities, including command and control, reconnaissance and early warning, air defense and missile interception, firepower strike, and integrated support, Wu said, noting that they are also combat-oriented, and will parade in combat group formations, demonstrating the principles of information dominance, system-supported operations, elite force deployment, and joint operations supremacy.

&gt; These weapons and equipment feature higher strike precision, greater battlefield adaptability and superior combat effectiveness, Wu said.

&gt; Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs expert, told the Global Times on Tuesday that China's latest weapons and equipment are expected to be a major point of focus of the event, particularly the new types of combat forces.

&gt; Highlighting that all participating weapons and equipment are domestically developed, Song said the event will show China's complete defense industry can fully support the Chinese military in defending the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

&gt; The military parade will show China's commitment to upholding the postwar international order and its resolute opposition to any resurgence of fascism on the global stage, Song said. He noted that the event, to be held amid the deteriorating global security situation, will show China's role as a crucial, powerful stabilizing force for regional and world peace.

&gt; When asked whether foreign leaders will be invited to attend the commemoration, Hu said during the press conference that China will invite leaders, former political figures, and senior officials from relevant countries, as well as heads of major international organizations, foreign diplomats and military attachés stationed in China, representatives of international organizations in China and international friends or their descendants who contributed to China's victory in the war. 

&gt; Further updates on these arrangements will be released in due course, Hu said. 

&gt; On the one hand, this commemoration aims to further strengthen the sense of a shared Chinese national identity and enhance unity and mutual recognition among different groups within the country, laying a solid foundation for building a prosperous, civilized and progressive modern nation, Li told the Global Times. 

&gt; "At the same time, it helps to rally all peace-loving forces around the world to the greatest extent possible, remain vigilant against and resist those dangerous actors who seek to undermine the postwar order, and safeguard the hard-won environment of peace and development," Li said. 

&gt; Around September 3, forums will be held for compatriots from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, as well as overseas Chinese and relevant individuals, in commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War, according to the press conference.

ass_pineapples

Waiting for the inevitable comparisons to Trumps birthday parade.

WhatAmIATailor

Xi seems to have a hard-on for commemorating the end of WWII, this was not a thing during previous administrations. Maybe the Fujian will be formally commissioned for this event?


On a side note, I was actually in Beijing during the last one in 2015 to plan my wedding. Two days before the parade it was hard to find an open restaurant since there was a ban on stir frying in commercial kitchens.

CloudZ1116

Chinese TV:


17:00 Glorious Ogre of the People's Marsh


18:45 Glorious Ogre of the People's Marsh 2


20:30 Glorious Ogre of the People's Marsh 3


10:15: Parade in memory of those who resisted against Japanese fascism.


10:20 Glorious Ogre of the People's Marsh: 14 Core Values

Korece

What victory they got bailed out by US in that war

Forsaken-Bobcat-491

We all know that the US and Soviet Union won that war .

Kingalec1

Even their MRE's are crappy. A youtuber once got sick from eating one.

sovietarmyfan

You are correct, their military is not advanced.

But the central problem is that they have massive manufacturing capacity and the sole military goal of being able to take on the US.  A single Chinese shipyard recently outputted more tonnage in a year than the US has since 1945.  Even Russia is outproducing all of NATO in artillery shells by a factor of 3 - 1.  

It is very conceivable that if a war started right now that China would win not because it has a good military but because the US military is dependent on China for it's supply lines (a 2018 pentagon study found this to be the case at hundreds of separate points) thanks to deindustrialization and that China can quickly replace it's losses whereas the US can't because it doesn't have the industrial capacity.

RedWing117

This is an incredibly unserious take.

1. Not sure why you think a ship being steam-powered is funny. Every single one of our aircraft carriers, submarines, and 6 of our LHDs are steam powered ships. The only difference is that except for our LHDs, the energy used to create the steam comes from nuclear fission as opposed to fuel oil. Moreover, China has rapidly modernized its surface fleet and has already overtaken the US in terms of the number of surface combatants. Yes we still hold the lead in terms of tonnage, however that gap is quickly diminishing.

An important metric to follow is the number of active Veritcal Launch System (VLS) cells each country has. The US currently has 8466 spread across 88 ships. China currently has 4336, with almost half of that being built within the last 5 or 6 years. Chinese shipbuilding capabilities far exceed what the US can currently do.

It's also important to remember that in the US Navy, VLS cells generally don't serve an anti-ship role; they are used almost exclusively with surface-to-air missiles and land attack cruise missiles like the tomahawk. 

2. While the US Navy has a large inventory of aircraft, less than 500 are actually fighter jets like the F/A-18E/F and the F-35C. When you consider where a potential conflict would occur (likely near Taiwan), the US Navy would find itself evenly matched or even outnumbered due to the Chinese Air Force being able to get involved. 

3. While China hasn't been in any recent major conflicts, neither the US. Our experience is mainly in counter insurgency operations (COIN) which is a completely different style of warfare to what we would see in a peer or near peer conflict.

Bottom line: China is absolutely a threat, and no one should attempt to downplay that fact.

angrysc0tsman12

They're not one of the 3 world powers for nothing. Their shear numbers give them an advantage and then there's all their stolen tech.

Xannon99182

I think the Chinese Air Force is pretty advanced, most of the technology was probably stolen from the US. One thing to note if they were in a conventional war they would send a million men at you at once.

Alpoi

That’s a fair opinion but don’t forget we lost a 20 year war to dudes with sandals, soviet era weapons and cellphones. And then left billions of dollars of advanced gear, vehicles, equipment and weapons behind. Which they’ve now equipped themselves with.

OG1Wiggum

ah yes, the Shroedinger's China, the one that is absolutely weak, yet somehow absolutely threatening to the "undisputed hegemon" at the same time.

sidestephen

EveningSwim

Could be true. The only place the US would realistically fight them would be for Taiwan, so it would be a sea-air war. The US has done war games for that scenario where they win most of the time, but not without significant losses due to the volume of missiles that China has.

Spectremax

Yeah China's projection power is much weaker than the US, no argument there, but they don't need to project far: their only interests are Taiwan and the South China sea. It's also not impossible to negate the US's advantage in power projection regionally. You just mass manufacture long range anti ship missiles that are fast and hard to intercept. If you can sink a couple carrier groups, all the firepower they carry goes to the bottom of the sea.

mattjouff

China has what is considered near peer. There is a number of things that go into that. Imo the pure quantity of draft soldier holds a great deal lf weight.

Kraken160th

The issue that you’re not considering is that wars aren’t necessarily fought purely through combat anymore. They are technological and economical.  

The issue is the US is dependent on China and sources most of the semiconductors which are needed in the US defense industry. They may not have a military as strong as ours but they have a stranglehold on many exports the US defense relies on. 

It’s sort of like the issue with Russia. Russia should have dominated Ukraine by now. The sanctions put on Russia making it harder for them to replenish their defense and relying on semi conductors from refrigerators and shit caused them to become significantly weaker after the invasion while the world supported Ukraine monetarily which is what has helped them last so long. 

Right now Trump is isolating America. Countries are moving into the arms of China. Even some of our biggest allies who have always been an enemy of China like Japan had now become friendly with them. If a world war starts even with the strongest military of the world decides to side against the US then China and everyone else has us by the balls.

Geedis2020

Networking is the real threat, and they’re bringing more and more flags under their thumb with the debts they’re incurring on them. How do you think WE became a global hegemony? Assurances and deals were made to allow for the creation of our hundreds of global military bases that allowed us to move as we pleased unhindered in the territories of the countries that agreed to host our bases. This is a benefit of soft power. Hard to refuel ships at ports that no longer allow our vessels. Military hardware only goes so far, it’s logistics that wins wars.

Mr_Frost1993

It doesn't matter. You're not looking at what China wants to do. They want to prevent the US from intervening in what they view as their area of influence. Which they can. Further, they can deter the US with the real final boss, nuclear war.

They are a problem because they can put up the numbers and power within their backyard. They aren't trying to be world police like the US military.

tmstksbk

Can China build a large enough navy in the next twenty years through its shipbuilding capabilities?

ytzfLZ

&gt;The last time that China was involved in any major conflict, they got their ass spanked by Japan and lost 16 million Chinese


This is just completely wrong. China deployed more than 2 million troops in the Korean War and achieved some major victories against NATO forces.

sum_muthafuckn_where


&gt;For anyone with a military strategy education or an elementary understanding of military history, such a statement is, to be blunt, both hilarious and delusional. To even suggest it indicates the speaker’s woeful ignorance in this area.

So what's your background then?

MGC91

I’m from china and I agree with everything OP said. China is still a developing country, please ignore us @-@

wushanyun

"The Chinese Navy consists of two old Soviet steam-powered (lol, I can barely even type this out it’s so funny) aircraft carriers, and their newest (still conventionally powered) Type 003" - naive. our country's carrier program is still in infancy stage. right now, our country doesn't need carriers that can sail on the other side of the earth without the need of refueling. upgrades/enhancement is just a matter of time. what important is to learn how this stuff works and to master the arts


"several dozen old diesel-powered destroyers and frigates with medium range conventional weapons" - ur outdated. probably you've been hiding in a cave for more than 3 decades already


"small support ships that could be arguably classified as fishing boats with guns" - u need a drone lesson for so much underestimating


"The US Navy is the world’s premier and only blue ocean navy" - absolutely correct


"11 nuclear powered supercarrier battle groups," - right now, US has yet to develop effective means to intercept hypersonic. its best and sure way defense right now is not getting detected


"advanced guided missile destroyers and cruisers" - we do have type 55 renhai class which is the closest you can compare to Zumwalt


"electronic warfare" - you probably never heard of July 8, 2024 electronic skirmish between ur almighty US and our navy since u've been living in a cave for decades


"69 fighter aircraft (yes, that’s not a typo)" - this alone proves enough of how delusional you are. US had long gone crushed us if we only had that very few numbers


"J-15T variants" - never heard of recent Pakistan-India skirmish?


"Finally, let’s discuss combat veterancy" - since medieval but when it comes to modern warfare, theres no way we can be compared to a warmonger


"they got their ass spanked by Japan" - i am grateful to US for having Japan ate 2 nukes. i had hoped US dropped more


"China has faced not a single combatant" - look what happened to ur almighty during Vietnam war &amp; the "go home by xmas offensive" during Korean war. u clearly not learning properly


"dangerous killers" - absolutely true. caucasians are the most superior race in the world


"undisputed military hegemon" - it is a cakewalk for me if u r the enemy commander. at least this i can tell

leexingha

Did you think someone was planning a traditional war between China and the US?   

By the way, how has the US done in their last several wars?

LeatherChaise

It took you guys 20 years to lose to a bunch of uneducated farmers with 50 year old weapons, you're not quite the super power I think you think you are.

Duncan_Thun_der_Kunt

I don't think China would send an expeditionary force to the USA, why would they. China will not be the aggressors in any war with a Western power. 

So, go try and fight this war in China, and see what happens.

Dry-Poem6778

But soon, there China will still be able to pay and feed their military service men, America’s system of borrowing and living of credit, is about to end

Confident_Economy_85

The Vietnamese Military was “weak”.   How did that end up?  Don’t underestimate your rivals. I would say enemy but even Canada wouldn’t come to into this battle.

CaregiverBrilliant60

China's successful testing of a hypersonic vehicle highlights advancements in military capabilities, raising concerns about global arms races.

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